Predikciós statisztikai módszerek az ásványvízfogyasztás előrejelzésében

Abstract

The habits of mineral water consumption have radically changed over the last forty years in Hungary. Among the food and beverage goods, this category of product showed the greatest growth during this period, however in the past few years the growth rate had slow down. Monitoring of the mineral water retail - volume of consumption, type of packaging, size of packaging, share of brands, average prices, share of share of market types - is carried out by the AC Nielsen market researcher. The popularity and frequency data of mineral water consumption are collected by the Gfk Market Research Institute for its .Fating Habitats" study. In our research, we characterize the consumption of mineral water, and make a prediction the expected evolution of consumption with statistical methods. Our research questions are the followings: 1. According to the analyzed dataset, from which year does not change considerably the estimate of the prediction model? When does the model works as a reliable forecast with fixed parameters? 2. How consumption evolves over the next few years based on the model? Based on our result, the prediction model gives a very good estimate about consumption since 2010 (RMSE 2011-2016<5 litre/person/year). The model is very accurate for the near years (average RMSE„ext first year=3.01, average RMSEnext second year=3.58, average RMSEnexl mw ycar=4.42 [litre/person/year]). According to this model, the average growth will be 0.7 litre/person/year in the next three years, after that the growth rate had slow down and in the final state the consumption level will be 127 litre/person/year.